Here’s your weekly Investing Action Plan: What you need to know as an investor for the coming week.
Shares of Facebook (FB) and Apple (AAPL) are poised to make notable moves, Oracle (ORCL) highlights a quiet week of earnings reports, and comments from Fed policymakers will get extra scrutiny, while top tech, media and banking companies will headline several industry conferences.
Stocks To Watch
With a 2.5% gain in heavy volume on Tuesday, Leaderboard-member Facebook entered a new buy range past a 128.43 buy point from a tight flat base. But with stocks pulling back on Friday, the social media giant dropped out of buy range.
Fellow Leaderboard-member CyberArk hit its highest level in more than a year on Wednesday, but reversed lower in above-average volume. That move put the stock back below a 57.67 buy point just cleared in the prior session. CyberArk has now undercut its 50-day moving average, dropping 5.5% Friday in heavy volume. Over the past month, shares have dipped below that level several times, but were able to quickly regain their composure.
Apple also undercut its 50-day line with a 2.3% retreat Friday, as investors failed to be impressed by the consumer tech behemoth’s fall product launches. The 50-day line just crossed above the 200-day line, which is bullish, and so would be Apple’s finding support there. But the stock is fading away from a potential buy point at 110.33.
Netflix, which is 28% below its 52-week high, has been hitting resistance near the 200-day line for the past few sessions and gapped well below it Friday. Netflix also hit resistance there as it attempted to retake the line in May and July. Even if the stock was able to climb back above this key support level, the chart has suffered technical damage, with the 50-day line below the 200-day since February amid some rocky earnings reports.
Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard is set to deliver a speech Monday at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, which is hosting an event dubbed “Beyond Interest: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.”
Her appearance comes a week before the Fed’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting, when the central bank could lift interest rates. The somewhat disappointing August jobs report earlier this month cooled such expectations, while hawkish comments Friday from the usually dovish Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren took markets by surprise.
Another wrinkle is that Brainard is widely considered a contender to be Treasury secretary in a Hillary Clinton administration, prompting concerns that the dovish Fed policymaker could have a political agenda when voting on interest rates. But the Fed historically has avoided making surprise moves in the September before an election.
The enterprise software giant reports fiscal Q1 results late Thursday, and analysts see EPS growing 9% to 58 cents, including acquisitions, with revenue rising 3% to $8.7 billion.
Oracle may comment on its recent NetSuite (N) acquisition and the outlook for a new database product with a cloud-based subscription model. In June, Oracle predicted Q1 cloud revenue would surge 75%-80%, after jumping 66% to $689 million in fiscal Q4.
The recent progress in the cloud has some analysts saying that the worst of Oracle’s transition is now over, including the trough in its operating profit cycle.
Shares are 5% below a 42.10 buy point but recently lost support at their 50-day average.
Space, Bank, Tech, Media Conferences
The American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics is hosting its Space Forum in Long Beach, Calif., starting Tuesday. Speakers include officials from NASA and the FAA as well as executives from SpaceX, Boeing, Lockheed Martin (LMT), United Launch Alliance (a Boeing-Lockheed joint venture), and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD). Panel topics include how to develop missions to Mars, the growing private space industry and new technologies. Later this month, SpaceX’s Musk will speak at another industry event to talk about creating a human presence on Mars.
Deutsche Bank holds a technology conference Tuesday and Wednesday in Las Vegas, with Acacia Communications (ACIA), Micron (MU), On Deck Capital (ONDK), Gigamon (GIMO), Workday (WDAY), and Microsemi (MSCC) among companies scheduled to make presentations.
IBD’S TAKE: Acacia, Gigamon and Workday are highly rated companies, and as a recent Stock Spotlight points out, Gigamon has posted six straight quarters of big earnings growth.
CFOs from Citigroup (C), Morgan Stanley (MS), Wells Fargo (WFC) and other top regional banks are set to present at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference in New York from Monday through Wednesday. JPMorgan Chase‘s (JPM) chief of consumer and community banking will attend.
CBS (CBS), Comcast (CMCSA), Time Warner (TWX), AT&T (T) and Discovery Communications (DISCA) are among the companies attending the Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Media, Communications and Entertainment Conference on Wednesday and Thursday.
Defense Industry Innovation
Defense Secretary Ash Carter will meet with officials at the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental (DIUx) in Mountain View, Calif., on Monday and then speak at the TechCrunch Disrupt conference in San Francisco on Tuesday, as the Pentagon tries to get Silicon Valley tech firms to be more active in the defense sector. Carter will then provide an update on DIUx on Wednesday in Austin, Texas, where he is expected to announce a new DIUx office in the Texas tech hub.
Although the August payroll report was the most important data point for the Fed, ahead of its next meeting, several other key reports will come out during the week before they huddle. On Thursday, August retail sales will come out, along with industrial production for that month and September manufacturing activity readings from the New York Fed and the Philly Fed. August producer prices are also due Thursday, followed by consumer prices on Friday.
Early Monday morning in the U.S., China will issue reports on August industrial production and retail sales, as Beijing tries to rebalance the economy away from investment and toward consumption. But China’s leaders have signaled unwillingness to let growth get too slow and have gone back to relying on forms of stimulus that helped spur the economy in prior decades.
Industrial production is expected to surge 6.2% from the prior month, which saw a 0.5% uptick. In July, production was up 6% on a year-over-year basis. Retail sales are seen rising 10.1% on an annual basis, nearly steady vs. July’s 10.2% increase.
Oil Reports, Data
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will release its monthly oil market report on Monday. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency will issue its monthly report on Tuesday and its World Energy Investment report on Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will announce weekly U.S. stockpile and production figures Wednesday, and Baker Hughes (BHI) will release rig counts Friday.
Season Of The Witch
A “quadruple witching” will descend on traders Friday. The simultaneous expiration of index options, index futures, stock options and stock futures can sometimes spell volatility for the market as investors scramble to cover their positions. The quad witch typically occurs on the third Friday of the quarter’s last month. Despite the dearth of earnings news, watch out for big, sudden price moves in heavy volume.